Solução da Roland Berger para a crise grega

Em resumo, a Roland Berger propõe a criação de uma holding europeia para comprar activos gregos como infraestruturas, imóveis, empresas públicas, etc. Os montantes da venda seriam aplicados na recompra de dívida pública contribuindo para a redução do rácio de endividamento grego.

Solução interessante. Mas provavelmente insuficiente.



«The most important component of the recovery proposal is the creation of a central holding company to take over Greek state assets, such as ports, airports, highways and real estate, worth a total of about 125 billion Euros. This holding would subsequently be sold to a European institution. Greece could then use the proceeds to repay its liabilities to the countries of the eurozone. Furthermore, the country could remove further bonds from the market by means of an EFSF program. The transaction is structured in such a way that a Greek default is ruled out. The plan would almost halve Greece's government debt in a short time from currently 145% to 88% of the gross domestic product (GDP) - without having to reschedule the country's debts.

To maximize the value of the privatized Greek state assets, the European fiduciary institution should invest an additional approx. 20 billion Euros to restructure the acquired state assets. In addition, it could avail itself of EU infrastructure funds for Greece amounting to 15 billion Euros. This would boost the prices that could be achieved when the individual assets are subsequently sold. "We anticipate a rapid surge in growth in the Greek economy as a side benefit of this program: instead of shrinking by 5% per annum as at present, Greece's GDP would grow by up to 5% a year," explains Markus Krall, Senior Partner at Roland Berger. "And this would in turn make sure that the state receives higher tax revenues." As a result, Greece's debt could be cut to the EU limit of 60% of GDP by 2025.

"Altogether," says Krall, "in one fell swoop, the country would escape from the debt trap, and a stimulus package would boost growth, create new jobs, and break the vicious circle of saving and shrinking. At the same time, this would also greatly reduce the costs - and the default risk - for the European partner countries. Simultaneously, it would make the European Central Bank's monetary policy more credible." »